India’s gulf policy in the context of China-U.S. strategic competition

Abstract India's engagement with the Gulf region has a long-standing history, spanning cultural, economic, and diasporic dimensions. Since Prime Minister Modi's tenure, India's Gulf policy has undergone significant adjustments, aiming to enhance its geopolitical influence, ensure energy security, and advance economic and security cooperation by strengthening ties with Gulf nations. Despite achieving some successes, India continues to confront challenges such as U.S. sanctions on Iran and China's competitive presence in West Asia, particularly in the context of intensifying China-U.S. strategic competition. The impact of China-U.S. strategic rivalry on India's Gulf policy is multifaceted. Firstly, the pressure to maintain a dynamic balance in geopolitical maneuvering has increased, necessitating India to remain adaptable in a complex international environment. Secondly, the intensifying China-U.S. competition has prompted India to reassess and adjust its Gulf policy to better safeguard its interests and adapt to the evolving international landscape. Thirdly, the urgency to formulate policies that preserve India's traditional interests has escalated. In response to these challenges, the Modi administration has recalibrated India's Gulf policy, which exhibits three key shifts. Firstly, the Gulf region has gained greater prominence in India's overall diplomatic strategy. Secondly, India has deepened its economic ties with Gulf nations through enhanced trade and investment cooperation. Thirdly, India has selectively coordinated policies with the U.S. to ensure the protection of its interests in the security domain. Looking ahead, India's Gulf policy can be further refined by deepening cooperation in the region and leveraging China's development momentum to share the economic benefits in the Gulf. Additionally, it is imperative for India to formulate a pragmatic and cautious policy towards Iran, characterized by risk aversion and limited proactive engagement.