Predicting area, production and productivity of gingelly in Tamil Nadu using linear and non-linear models

The objective of this study was to identify the most suitable linear and non-linear growth models for predicting the area, productivity, and production of gingelly in Tamil Nadu, as well as to project its future growth (until 2026 A.D.). The seasonal crop report of Tamil Nadu provided time series data regarding the area, productivity, and production of gingelly for a 58-year period spanning from 1965–1966 to 2022–2023. The study involved fitting multiple trend equations, including linear and non-linear growth models, to determine the best-fitting model for gingelly production in Tamil Nadu. For the forecasting up to 2026, the model that best suited the data was selected based on its highest coefficient of determination (R2) and lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values. During the study period, the average gingelly area, production, and productivity in Tamil Nadu were recorded as 93892 ha, 37471 t, and 431 kg/ha, respectively. The cubic model's predictions for the future showed that area, productivity, and production will all rise significantly. By 2026 A.D., the predicted area is expected to be 28338.62 hectares, while production and productivity are projected to reach 15211.87 t and 581.22 kg/ha, respectively.