Public transport travel time perception: A comparative study of passenger estimates and actual bus trip durations

• We compare actual and perceived bus transit travel times over survey and AVL data. • Perceived in-vehicle travel times are 18 % higher than the actual ones, on average. • Regression models analyze personal and service features against time perceptions. • Passengers are more likely to underestimate longer-duration trips. • Low satisfaction from onboard conditions explains travel time overestimations. In this paper, we analyze questionnaire survey and AVL data to compare perceived and actual in-vehicle travel times for 297 bus public transport trips made in Thessaloniki, Greece. We estimate the perceived-to-actual travel time ratio to achieve a fairer comparison between longer and shorter trips, thereby better representing the passengers' perspectives. Empirical findings showed that one out of five passengers made nearly accurate travel time estimations, with a difference of up to ±10 % from the actual duration. However, on average, passengers overestimated in-vehicle travel times by 18 %. We conducted a confirmatory factor analysis to construct comprehensive passenger satisfaction factors for both in-vehicle and out-of-vehicle travel conditions. By employing multiple regression analysis, we highlight that passengers who are less satisfied with trip duration and bus occupancy levels tend to overperceive in-vehicle time. Additionally, longer-duration trips and those requiring relatively higher waiting times at bus stops are more likely to be underestimated. Our findings contribute to the limited research on in-vehicle travel time perceptions of public transport users and emphasize the need to improve commercial speed and provide real-time information to bridge the gap between actual and perceived travel times.