The Complex Misestimation of Others’ Emotions: Underestimation of Emotional Prevalence Versus Overestimation of Emotional Intensity and Their Associations with Well-Being

Jordan et al., 2011, demonstrated that people underestimated the prevalence of others' negative emotional experiences and that these were associated with higher well-being. We conducted a preregistered replication of Studies 1b and 3 by Jordan et al., 2011 (<i>N</i> = 594) with adjustments and added extensions. Building on their methodology, we examined both prevalence and intensity of emotional experiences, and our findings suggest a much more complex story with surprising effects. We found an underestimation of the prevalence of negative emotions, but also unexpectedly of an underestimation of the prevalence of positive emotions, with stronger effects for negative than for positive emotions. However, we found an opposite effect for emotional intensity; people overestimated the intensity of both positive and negative emotional experiences, again with stronger effects for negative. Surprisingly, associations between prevalence estimations and well-being were in the opposite direction to the target article's. Materials, data, and code: https://osf.io/bwmtr/.