Validation of marathon performance model based on physiological factors in world-class East African runners: a case series

Abstract Objectives The aim of this study was to compare the measured physiological factors that limit running performance with real marathon results from world-class distance runners, evaluating the compatibility between measured data and predicted results based on the previously suggested model. Methods Four world-class East African marathon runners (three male, one female) underwent physiological running assessments to predict marathon performance times using a model based on <m:math xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <m:mrow> <m:mover accent="true"> <m:mi mathvariant="normal">V</m:mi> <m:mo>˙</m:mo> </m:mover> </m:mrow> </m:math> $\dot {\mathrm{V}}$ O 2 peak, percentage of <m:math xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <m:mrow> <m:mover accent="true"> <m:mi mathvariant="normal">V</m:mi> <m:mo>˙</m:mo> </m:mover> </m:mrow> </m:math> $\dot {\mathrm{V}}$ O 2 peak at the second ventilatory threshold, and running economy. Predictions were then compared to participants’ best marathon times. Results The measured <m:math xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <m:mrow> <m:mover accent="true"> <m:mi mathvariant="normal">V</m:mi> <m:mo>˙</m:mo> </m:mover> </m:mrow> </m:math> $\dot {\mathrm{V}}$ O 2 peak of the world-class runners was 75.1 ± 2.7 mL/kg/min. The second ventilatory threshold occurred at 85 ± 3 % of the peak, with a running economy of 63.7 ± 2.4 mL/kg/min at 19.6 ± 0.9 km/h. The predicted marathon performance time was 2:06:51 ± 0:03:17 h:min:s for the males and 2:17:36 h:min:s for the female. Comparing these predictions to their personal best times, the average difference was 00:55 ± 00:51 min:s (range: 00:20-02:08). Conclusions This research provides laboratory data on world-class road running athletes, reinforcing the link between marathon performance and <m:math xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <m:mrow> <m:mover accent="true"> <m:mi mathvariant="normal">V</m:mi> <m:mo>˙</m:mo> </m:mover> </m:mrow> </m:math> $\dot {\mathrm{V}}$ O 2 peak, the percentage of <m:math xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <m:mrow> <m:mover accent="true"> <m:mi mathvariant="normal">V</m:mi> <m:mo>˙</m:mo> </m:mover> </m:mrow> </m:math> $\dot {\mathrm{V}}$ O 2 peak at the second ventilatory threshold, and running economy. The examined athletes had lower <m:math xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <m:mrow> <m:mover accent="true"> <m:mi mathvariant="normal">V</m:mi> <m:mo>˙</m:mo> </m:mover> </m:mrow> </m:math> $\dot {\mathrm{V}}$ O 2 peak compared to predicted values, highlighting the importance of running economy and fractional utilization of <m:math xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <m:mrow> <m:mover accent="true"> <m:mi mathvariant="normal">V</m:mi> <m:mo>˙</m:mo> </m:mover> </m:mrow> </m:math> $\dot {\mathrm{V}}$ O 2 peak in achieving such performances. Future studies should continue to advance the field by including additional bioenergetic parameters measured during race conditions and expanding the participant cohort of elite marathoners, encompassing both sexes.