A Probabilistic Model Predictive Control Approach for PV-Diesel Hybrid Systems in Ghana’s Health Sector Using Seamless State Prediction Methods

In Ghana, unreliable public grid infrastructure greatly impacts rural healthcare, where diesel generators are commonly used despite their high financial and environmental costs. Photovoltaic (PV)-hybrid systems offer a sustainable alternative, but require robust, predictive control strategies to ensure reliability. This study proposes a sector-specific Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach, integrating advanced load and meteorological forecasting for optimal energy dispatch. The methodology includes a long-short-term memory (LSTM)-based load forecasting model with probabilistic Monte Carlo dropout, a customized Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) framework, and deep learning-based All-Sky Imager (ASI) nowcasting to improve short-term solar predictions. By combining these forecasting methods into a seamless prediction framework, the proposed MPC optimizes system performance while reducing reliance on fossil fuels. This study benchmarks the MPC against a traditional rule-based dispatch system, using data collected from a rural health facility in Kologo, Ghana. Results demonstrate that predictive control greatly reduces both economic and ecological costs. Compared to rule-based dispatch, diesel generator operation and fuel consumption are reduced by up to 61.62% and 47.17%, leading to economical and ecological cost savings of up to 20.7% and 31.78%. Additionally, system reliability improves, with battery depletion events during blackouts decreasing by up to 99.42%, while wear and tear on the diesel generator and battery are reduced by up to 54.93% and 37.34%, respectively. Furthermore, hyperparameter tuning enhances MPC performance, introducing further optimization potential. These findings highlight the effectiveness of predictive control in improving energy resilience for critical healthcare applications in rural settings.