Spatial Divergence of Forestry Green Total Factor Productivity in China Under the Constraint of Carbon Emissions

In the dual-carbon context, forestry green total factor productivity (FGTFP) serves as a key indicator of the quality and efficiency of forestry development. Based on New Economic Geography Theory, this study explores FGTFP and its spatial divergence under the constraint of carbon emissions. We analyzed panel data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2004 and 2022. The Directional Distance Function (DDF) model was applied to measure FGTFP, and the Global Malmquist–Luenberger (GML) model was applied to measure FGTFP’s decomposition index. The Dagum Gini coefficient was employed to analyze the degree of spatial divergence of FGTFP and identify its sources. Using Porter’s model and Sustainable Development Theory, the geo-detector was applied to examine the driving factors of FGTFP and its decomposition index. The study’s findings indicate that (1) FGTFP in China generally trended upward from 2004 to 2022, with significant heterogeneity observed at both interprovincial and regional levels; (2) Technological Improvement (TI) was the primary driver of FGTFP growth in the eastern, northeastern and central regions, while Efficiency Change (EC) was the key driver in the western region; (3) FGTFP exhibited distinct spatial divergence patterns in China, with hypervariable density as the primary source, followed by interregional differentiation, and regional differentiation contributing the least; and (4) green energy transition factors consistently showed a significant “two-factor enhancement effect” and a “non-linear enhancement trend”, while external environmental factors exhibited strong interaction effects but demonstrated a “non-linear weakening trend”. Therefore, it is essential to promote the green transformation of production modes, facilitate structural adjustments and upgrades in the forestry industry, enhance regional collaboration, and advance the “dual enhancement” of technological progress and efficiency. Additionally, leveraging regional comparative advantages will promote coordinated development.