Emergence to dominance: Estimating time to dominance of SARS-CoV-2 variants using nonlinear statistical models

The Weibull model performed the worst out of all three approaches. The generalized additive model approach slightly outperformed the logistic model based on fit statistics, but lacked in interpretability compared to the logistic model. These models were then used to estimate the time elapsed from emergence to dominance in the infected population, denoted by the time to dominance (TTD). All three models yielded similar TTD estimates. The XBB.1.5 variant was found to dominate the population faster compared to the JN.1 variant, especially in HHS Region 2 (New York) where the XBB.1.5 was believed to emerge. This research expounds on how emerging viral strains transition to dominance, informing public health interventions against future emergent COVID-19 variants and other infectious diseases.