Seismic Images of Pressurized Sources and Fluid Migration Driving Uplift at the Campi Flegrei Caldera During 2020–2024

After the subsidence phase that followed the 1982–1984 bradyseismic crisis, a gradual ground uplift at Campi Flegrei caldera resumed in 2005, while volcanic-tectonic earthquakes have steadily increased in frequency and intensity since 2018, with a significant intensification observed since 2023. This rise in seismic activity enabled a new tomographic study using data collected from 2020 to June 2024. In this work, 4161 local earthquakes (41,272 P-phases and 14,683 S-phases) were processed with the tomoDDPS code, considering 388,166 P and 107,281 S differential times to improve earthquake locations and velocity models. Compared to previous tomographic studies, the 3D velocity models provided higher-resolution images of the central caldera’s structure down to ~4 km depth. Additionally, separate inversions of the two 2020–2022 (moderate seismicity) and 2023–2024 (intense seismicity) datasets identified velocity variations ranging from 5% to 10% between these periods. These changes observed in 2023–2024 support the existence of two pressurized sources at different depths. The first, located at 3.0–4.0 km depth beneath Pozzuoli and offshore, may represent either a magma intrusion enriched in supercritical fluids or an accumulation of pressurized, high-density fluids—a finding that aligns with recent ground deformation studies and modeled source depths. Additionally, the upward migration of magmatic fluids interacting with the geothermal system generated a secondary, shallower pressurized source at approximately 2.0 km depth beneath the Solfatara-Pisciarelli area. Overall, these processes are responsible for the recent acceleration in uplift, increased seismicity and gases from the fumarolic field, and changes in crustal elastic properties through stress variations and fluid/gas migration.