Impact of the Pilot Policy for Migrant Workers’ Return Entrepreneurship on High-Quality Agricultural Development in the Context of Rural Revitalization

This study examines the effect of China’s Pilot Policy for Migrant Workers Returning Home for Entrepreneurship on High-Quality Agricultural Development (HQAD) at the county level. Despite extensive research on return migration and rural development, few studies have focused on how such entrepreneurship policies affect HQAD. We analyze county-level panel data from 2014 to 2021 using a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to assess the policy’s effectiveness and its regional variations across China. We further validate our findings through robustness tests, including parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and propensity score matching combined with difference-in-differences analysis (PSM–DID). The results indicate that the pilot policy significantly enhances HQAD (β = 0.216, p < 0.001), with more pronounced effects in the Eastern region (β = 0.401, p < 0.001) than in the Central region (β = 0.312, p < 0.001), and no significant effects in the Western region. Additionally, our analysis shows that population agglomeration (β = 0.306, p < 0.001) and technological innovation (β = 2.970, p < 0.001) positively moderate the policy’s impact, whereas e-commerce development (β = −0.257, p < 0.001) has a negative moderating effect. These insights highlight that the success of return entrepreneurship policies is heavily dependent on regional characteristics and supportive development factors, offering crucial implications for refining policies in rural development strategies.