Constructing the hydrogen demand curve for road transport: Case studies for Germany and China

Overview of the HyDAM-T model and the key findings of this paper. • Electric vehicles are the most economical option in most cases in the long run. • Heavy-duty freight truck buyers are the most sensitive to fuel prices. • Heavy-duty freight transport shows the highest hydrogen demand potential in 2050. • Germany shows higher price acceptance for hydrogen than China. • Key drivers are fuel and carbon prices in 2030, and electricity prices in 2050. Using hydrogen as a fuel can potentially decarbonize road transport, however, its economic feasibility is unclear due to the absence of a hydrogen market. This paper introduces a novel approach for deriving hydrogen demand curves in road transport and analyzes the hydrogen demand potential for Germany and China. By estimating acceptable prices for new vehicle buyers opting for hydrogen and the possible hydrogen demand from these new vehicles, we provide insights into potential market dynamics. Additionally, we examine the impacts of different developments in fuel, electricity, and carbon prices on technology diffusion and hydrogen demand potential. Simulations for 2030 and 2050 across 15 price pathways reveal that hydrogen could be demanded in passenger transport in 2030 in Germany but not beyond, attributed to the economic viability and improving availability of electric alternatives. Heavy-duty freight emerges as a key demand segment with significant long-term potential in both countries, with higher acceptable prices.