A Simulation of a Suitable Habitat for Acer yangbiense and Cinnamomum chago Under Climate Change

Species migration or extinction events may occur on a large scale with the intensification of climate change. Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations (PSESP) are more sensitive to climate change as compared to other plants. To date, the potential effect of climate change on Acer yangbiense and Cinnamomum chago, both of which belong to PSESP, remain unknown. In this study, we modeled the distribution dynamics of A. yangbiense and C. chago spanning from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the end of the 21st century based on the MaxEnt model, optimized using the Kuenm package. The results revealed that the parameter settings of the optimal models were RM (regularization multiplier) = 3.5, FC (feature combination) = QP, and RM = 2, FC = QPT. A. yangbiense and C. chago had AUCs of 0.982 and 0.993, respectively, indicating that the model predictions are highly accurate while effectively balancing complexity and avoiding overfitting. The distribution of A. yangbiense and C. chago was mostly influenced by the precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17) and the min temperature of the coldest month (bio6). From the LGM to the present, the total suitable areas of A. yangbiense and C. chago initially declined before showing a subsequent increase, but it is projected to experience significant reductions in the future, with decreases of 32.98%–64.99% and 63.48%–99.49%, respectively. The distribution centroids of A. yangbiense and C. chago showed a migration trend from south to north from the LGM to the present, and this trend is expected to continue. To enhance the resilience of A. yangbiense and C. chago to meet the challenges of climate change in the future, we proposed that the introduction and artificial cultivation of these species should be carried out in Baoshan, Dali, and Nujiang in the northwest of Yunnan Province, which were the areas with high heat values, so as to expand the populations gradually.