Utility of the Geological Carbon Sequestration (GCS) Business: Potential Perils and Scenarios till 2150 and Beyond

This study highlights long-term greenhouse gas emission-curbing scenarios, pushing the time-frame from 2050 to 2150 and beyond (2200). The model is based on a new scenario-modelling approach, combining history-matching of past emission data (1850–2022) with forward-modelling algorithms (2023–2200). Considered are the effect of curbing measures reducing anthropogenic annual growth by n × ζ (n=number of years since the starting curb measure; ζ=curbing rate, with 0.0025, 0.005, 0.0075, 0.01, 0.025, and 0.05 per year). The global inequity in efforts to mitigate emissions is highlighted. The numerous Geological Carbon Sequestration (GCS)-projects currently executed in the North Sea, targeting depleted offshore gas fields (Porthos, Aramis, Orion), a depleted oil field (Greensand), and saline aquifers (Endurance, Northern Lights, Acorn) are vulnerable to volatility in the European carbon-credit market (ETS). If the ETS market fails, price-guarantees for GCS-projects by governments mean tax-payers will bear the brunt.