Effects of age, period, and birth cohort on fall-related mortality in older adults in Brazil from 1980 to 2019

Falls in older adults are a major public health problem. This study aimed to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on fall-related mortality in older adults in Brazil and its geographic regions, by sex, from 1980 to 2019. We conducted an ecological time-series study using data on fall-related deaths in older adults extracted from Brazilian Mortality Information System. Poisson models were adjusted for sex and geographic region to estimate age-period-cohort effects. From 1980 to 2019, Brazil recorded 170,607 fall-related deaths in older adults, with 50.1% occurring in women. More than half of these deaths occurred in the age group of 80 years or older (55%) and in the Southeast Region (52%). We observed an increase in fall-related mortality rates across all age groups and regions, regardless of sex. There was an increased risk of death in all periods after the reference period (2000 to 2004) in all geographic regions and for both sexes. We also observed a gradual increase in mortality risk for men born before 1914 and after 1935 compared to the reference cohort (1930 to 1934). In contrast, we found a protective effect across all birth cohorts for women. There was a consistent increase in fall-related mortality risk among older people in Brazil, posing a public health challenge. The findings highlight the urgent need for implementing public health policies that promotes older adults' health and prevents fall risks to improve this population's quality of life.