A data-driven approach to predict fracture intensity using machine learning for presalt carbonate reservoirs: A feasibility study in the Mero Field, Santos Basin, Brazil

Predicting fracture intensity is essential for optimising reservoir production and mitigating drilling risks in the Brazilian pre-salt layer. However, previous studies rely excessively on conceptual models and typically do not integrate multiple types of data to perform such task. Moreover, to date, no feasibility-like studies have assessed the reasonableness of such approaches. We propose a data-driven approach that utilises upscaled well logs (Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, and silica content) alongside seismic attributes (curvature, distance to fault) to predict fracture intensity. The distance to fault is measured using the fault probability volume estimated by a pre-trained convolutional neural network (CNN). We evaluate the effectiveness of this data-driven approach employing two tree-ensemble models, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Random Forest, to estimate the volumetric fracture intensity (P32) in the wells. Regression and residual analyses indicate that XGBoost outperforms Random Forest. Results from feature importance methods, such as permutation importance and Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP), highlight curvature as the most important feature, followed by distance to fault, Young's modulus (or P-Impedance), silica content, and Poisson's ratio. The approach has been validated with rock sampling information and two blind tests. Consequently, we believe this workflow can be applied to other wells in nearby fields. The study offers a valuable tool for quantitatively estimating fracture intensity in pre-salt reservoirs. Future research may use this study as a reference for estimating fracture intensity within a seismic volume. The predicted fracture intensity estimates can enhance the reliability of reservoir porosity models and serve as a geohazard indicator to mitigate drilling risks. • Evaluate two tree-ensemble methods to predict fracture intensity in the Barra Velha Fm. • XGBoost outperformed Random Forest regarding regression metrics. • k1 curvature is most important for the prediction, especially in highly deformed regions. • For less deformed regions, P-Impedance holds vital information for estimating fractures. • P-Impedance can replace Young's modulus as an indicator of rock brittleness.