LOCALIZED DATA FOR EDUCATIONAL EQUITY: SMALL AREA ESTIMATION OF OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN IN BALI AND NUSA TENGGARA

This study aims to estimate the percentage of out-of-school children aged 7–17 years in Bali and Nusa Tenggara using the Small Area Estimation (SAE) method with a Hierarchical Bayes. One of the main challenges in education policy planning is the limited data available. National surveys, such as the National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas), typically provide estimates only at the national and provincial levels, while more detailed data at the district level is often lacking. This limitation restricts the understanding of educational disparities at the local level and complicates the design of targeted policies. To address this issue, SAE Hierarchical Bayes provides a solution by producing more accurate district-level estimates, utilizing additional data without the need for new sampling. This method has proven to be cost-effective and efficient, particularly in regions with complex geography, such as Bali and Nusa Tenggara. The findings reveal that districts in East Nusa Tenggara generally exhibit a higher percentage of out-of-school children compared to the national average, indicating significant regional disparities that require attention. These findings highlight the urgency of improving educational infrastructure, particularly in underdeveloped areas of East Nusa Tenggara, to promote equitable access to education and reduce the number of children out of school