Establishing Climate Change on Temperature Trend, Variation and Change Point Pattern in Warri, Nigeria

The study aimed to establish climate change on temperature trends, variation and change point patterns in Warri, Nigeria, using 31-year daily temperature data (1992-2022). The primary data were obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) for Warri to understand the temperature dynamic in the city. Both the annual maximum and minimum temperatures were extracted from the dataset and also the mean temperature was obtained by getting the mean temperature of the maximum temperature values. Mann-Kendall trend tests, linear regression, change point detection through CUSUM analysis, and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests were used for the trend and change point analyses. Results revealed statistically significant increasing trends in annual maximum temperature (0.02°C/year) and mean temperature (0.025°C/year), while minimum temperature showed a non-significant positive trend. Change point analysis identified significant shifts in maximum and mean temperatures around 2005-2006. The average annual maximum temperature was 36.35°C, with temperature yearly projections suggesting potential increases to nearly 40°C over the next century if current trends continue. These findings have important implications for urban infrastructure and industrial operations in Warri, particularly given its significance as a major oil and gas hub. The study provides crucial insights for climate adaptation planning in coastal industrial cities experiencing warming trends.