Decarbonizing the Asian steel industries through green Hot Briquetted Iron trade

The Asian steel industry produces 73 % of global steel and is expanding. The speed and plans for decarbonizing the Asian steel sector are thus globally important. Importing green Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI), iron ore reduced to iron with renewable hydrogen, from renewable-rich countries such as Australia, Brazil and South Africa, could be a good option to avoid constraints with access to renewables. However, the effects of green-HBI-trade on Asian steel decarbonization strategies have not yet been studied. We use an optimization model, spanning from 2023–2070, to evaluate whether green-HBI-trade can help Asia to achieve Nationally Determined Contributions and Paris Agreement. We found that HBI-trade could accelerate the phase-out of BF-BOF steel by 2 to 5 years and reduce BF-BOF steel production by 2 Gt, thus lowering the cumulative CO 2 -emissions from the steel sector by 4 Gt. Consequently, current plans to expand BF-BOF capacity may lead to stranded assets when steel is decarbonizing.