Application of Systems-of-Systems Theory to Electromagnetic Warfare Intentional Electromagnetic Interference Risk Assessment

Battlefields contain complex networks of electromagnetic (EM) systems, owned by adversary/allied military forces and civilians, communicating intentionally or unintentionally. Attacker’s strategies may include Intentional EM Interference (IEMI) to adversary target systems, although transmitted signals may additionally degrade/disrupt allied/civilian systems (called victims). To aid decision-making processes relating to IEMI attacks, Risk Assessment (RA) is performed to determine whether interference risks to allied/civilian systems are acceptable. Currently, there is no formalized Quantitative RA Method (QRAM) capable of calculating victim risk distributions, so a novel approach is proposed to address this knowledge gap, utilizing an Electromagnetic Warfare (EW) IEMI RA method modeling scenarios consisting of interacting EM systems within complex, dynamic, diverse, and uncertain environments, using Systems-of-Systems (SoS) theory. This paper aims to address this knowledge gap via critical analysis utilizing a case study which demonstrates the use of an Acknowledged SoS-based model as input to a QRAM capable of calculating victim risk distributions within EW IEMI RA-associated scenarios. Transmitter operators possess only uncertain/fuzzy knowledge of victim systems, so it is proposed that a Moot Acknowledged System-of-Fuzzy-Systems applies to EW IEMI RA scenarios. In summary, a novel SoS description feeding a novel QRAM (supported by a systematic literature review of RA mathematical modeling techniques)is proposed to address the knowledge gap.