Current and future wood availability: a simulation of interacting climate, land use, and management scenarios in Flanders, Belgium

Abstract As global interest in woody biomass increases to support a bioeconomy, the sustainable management and use of forest resources become critical challenges. This study focuses on assessing both current and future wood availability across Flanders, Belgium, through a spatiotemporal, multifaceted approach. The Sim4Tree decision support system simulated diverse scenarios encompassing climate change, land use change, and shifts in management goals and related practices. Our research reveals that current wood harvesting levels in Flanders (0.85 Mm3 year−1) remain below even the most conservative estimates of potential harvest amounts (1.043 Mm3 year−1), indicating untapped potential for sustainable wood harvest. The simulations underscore the central role of forest management in regulating harvest levels, forest structure, and composition. The tested production-oriented management strategy holds the risk of depleting the natural capital: as the average annual harvest increases by 83%, young fast-growing poplar stands become dominant, and standing stock decreases by over 50% between 2020 and 2050. Conversely, the nature-oriented management strategy prioritizes sustainable wood harvests (standing stock +7%) and has the potential to support biodiversity as stands are allowed to mature (+10 years) and native deciduous species are promoted (+8%). Climate change and land use change had relatively limited effects on future forest development and harvest compared to forest management during the 30-year simulation timeframe, requiring longer periods to accurately assess their effects as well as more complex climate scenarios that include disturbances. In conclusion, annual harvest levels can be increased by roughly 25% (0.2 Mm3 year−1) compared to the current level without depleting the natural capital. The nature-oriented scenario proved to be the preferred management strategy to achieve long-term sustainable ecological and economic goals, with both higher harvest levels and more complex and diverse forest stands compared to the present situation. Adopting a unified framework that considers the current and future socio-economic context of a region is crucial to provide valuable insights into potential biomass availability, ensuring its sustainable use and management.