Accurate Reliability Evaluation Method and Weak Link Identification for Low-Voltage Distribution Networks That Considers User Demand Levels

The reliability of the power supply in low-voltage distribution networks plays a crucial role in efficient power system operation. Faced with the growing demand for electricity and the diverse usage patterns of users, existing management approaches struggle to meet the varying needs of different groups. This paper proposes a reliability assessment model that is based on user demands and integrates the Delphi method and gray relational analysis to provide an innovative approach for low-voltage distribution network tiered classification management. The study focuses on the distribution network of a certain area in China. In terms of reliability assessment methods, this study creatively introduces the equivalent series method to simplify the reliability evaluation, enabling a more efficient and intuitive reliability analysis. Through actual substation case studies, this research not only assesses low-voltage distribution network reliability but also identifies weak links within the system and the key factors affecting power supply reliability via a chain tracing method, providing a scientific basis for future management strategies.