Rural-urban migration and household transportation expenditures: A causal exploration method using Indonesian panel data

• Proposes a framework following causal inferences literature into travel behavior research. • Assesses the impact of relocating to urban on household transportation expenditures. • Finds that compact, urban development has a modest impact on reducing household transportation expenditures. • Underscores the importance of promoting micro-longitudinal surveys to improve understanding of travel behavior dynamics. Despite extensive studies on the interaction between transport and land use, the literature has largely overlooked whether exposure to significantly denser environments after relocating from low-density settings influence mobility outcomes. This study addresses this gap by proposing a causal framework to estimate the impacts of rural–urban migration on household transportation expenditures. Using the longitudinal Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), Difference-in-Differences (DiD) models are estimated to a balanced panel dataset, comprising households that relocated to urban areas (exposed group) and similar households that migrated to rural areas (comparison group) identified through Propensity Score Matching (PSM). The results suggest statistically insignificant reduction in the share of transportation expenditures attributed to the cumulative exposure to dense and mixed-use urban environments.