Launch of the global preharvest crop forecast of climate-induced yield variations

Global preharvest crop forecasting is a field of research that has emerged since the 2010s. Such research is expected to contribute to making globally interconnected agri-food systems more climate resilient. In November 2024, the global preharvest crop forecasting system entered in its operational phase at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC). Using the APCC multi-model ensemble (MME) temperature and precipitation forecasts as main inputs, the system provides monthly information on climate-induced changes in the yields of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean in the ongoing season, 6 to 3 mo before the harvest. This information is a key outcome of the research project jointly conducted by the National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO), Japan, and APCC, Republic of Korea, for the period 2017-2023. To commemorate this milestone, this Opinion Piece briefly summarizes the global crop forecasting research done by our team and possible avenues for future research to make such forecasts more reliable and widely adopted by societies.