How Carbon Quota Guides the Sustainable and Development of China's New Energy Vehicle Industry

<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">The sustainable and healthy development of the new energy vehicle industry relies on supportive and guiding policies. However, China's auto industry currently faces challenges such as the gradual reduction of subsidies and the overaccumulation of credit points. To more effectively promote the high-quality development of new energy vehicles and support the achievement of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, it is essential to seek innovative solutions to further refine the existing policy framework. Carbon quota policy is considered to be an effective measure to realize the dual-carbon goal and guide the high-quality development of China's new energy vehicle industry. Against this background, this study discusses the incentive mechanism of carbon quota policy on technological innovation of new energy vehicles and makes suggestions for policy implementation. First, this study forecasts China's annual automobile sales based on a multiple regression model using indicators such as private car ownership, per capita GDP, total highway mileage, per capita disposable income, and fuel power price. Secondly, based on the GREET model, this study builds a model to measure the carbon dioxide emissions of traditional gasoline vehicles, pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, calculates the carbon emissions of each power type of vehicles at the present stage in China, and measures the future carbon emission credits of China's automobile industry based on the results. Finally, this study carries out the simulation simulation of the system dynamics model of the automobile industry, with the goal of guiding the innovation of new energy technology and the targeted design of the policy scenarios, and obtains the carbon quota policy suitable for the rapid development of China's new energy automobile industry.</div></div>