Assessment of landslide susceptibility in Bulgaria, in the context of climate change, using the Mora and Vahrson method

The present study examines the change in landslide susceptibility under climate change conditions. The Landslide Susceptibility Index for the territory of Bulgaria was determined using the Mora and Vahrson method, based on the weighted assessment of various adverse conditions and destabilizing factors on slope stability. The input data include precipitation, soil moisture, seismicity, relief, and lithological factor. The simulations for the current and future climate in the present study were performed for a reference period (1975–2004), which is representative of the current climate, and a second period, relating to the climate of the near future (2021–2050). The RCP8.5 scenario is used. The climate change model applied in the present study shows a slight decrease in the areas threatened by landslides. This is probably due to the reduced soil moisture parameters.