The US Facing Israel: From Restrainer to Enabler

For decades, US–Israel relations survived and thrived at least partly because of the two states’ commitment to the regional status quo. In 2020, the Trump administration’s promotion of the Abraham Accords demonstrated its ideological sympathy with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government and reinforced Israel’s determination to pressure the Palestinians to relinquish their sovereign ambitions. Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attacks have hardened Israel’s revisionist inclinations, and the Biden administration was unable to meaningfully restrain it in Gaza or keep it from expanding regional hostilities. As a result, formerly revisionist Iran has essentially become a status quo power. The current Trump administration is likely to acquiesce to Israeli excesses, partly in the hope that Israel will counterbalance Iran. Now with compatible revisionist agendas, Israel and the United States will continue their special relationship, potentially seeking drastic change rather than relative stability.