NPP-VIIRS Nighttime Lights Illustrate the Post-Earthquake Damage and Subsequent Economic Recovery in Hatay Province, Turkey

The catastrophic twin earthquakes that struck southern Turkey and northern Syria on 6 February 2023 caused massive casualties and extensive damage to infrastructure, with Hatay Province of Turkey bearing the brunt of the impact. To swiftly and thoroughly assess the damage caused by the earthquakes and the subsequent reconstruction efforts, this study initially investigated the application of light change ratios between the pre-earthquake monthly nighttime lights (NTLs) and the post-earthquake daily NTL data to identify earthquake damage in Hatay Province. Next, the monthly NTL data were employed to calculate the time series average lighting index (ALI). Subsequently, random noise and seasonal fluctuation were eliminated through data smoothing and seasonal decomposition techniques. Pre- and post-earthquake regression models were then utilised to establish a comprehensive framework for assessing economic recovery following the earthquake. The findings indicated that (1) the seismic damage identification method based on NTL data achieved an overall accuracy exceeding 71.55% in detecting building damage after a disaster. This method provided a swift and effective solution for rapidly assessing disaster-related destruction. (2) The reduced NTLs exhibited a strong correlation with the area of severely and moderately damaged buildings while showing a weaker correlation with areas of slightly damaged buildings. (3) The developed pre- and post-earthquake regression models demonstrated a high degree of fit, making them valuable tools for assessing regional economic recovery after the earthquake. At the county scale, such districts as Erzin and Kumlu exhibited promising signs of recovery, while such severely impacted areas as Antakya faced misconceptions of progress, primarily due to the brightening of NTLs caused by reconstruction efforts. Additionally, such districts as Dortyol and Samandag grappled with substantial short-term recovery challenges. Although the province experienced gradual economic recovery, achieving complete restoration has remained complex and time-intensive. The study offers valuable insights into earthquake damage assessment and economic recovery monitoring while serving as a scientific reference for disaster mitigation and post-disaster reconstruction efforts.