FORECAST OF THERMAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION CONSIDERING WARTIME REALITIES AND POST-WAR ECOVERY FOR THE MID-TERM PERSPECTIVE (UP TO 2030)

The forecast of heat energy consumption in the country and by sections of the economy is relevant for determining the amount of heat energy generation by various types of heat generating sources operating on organic fuel and renewable energy sources. The forecast of heat energy consumption is based on macroeconomic indicators. These indicators were estimated from open sources of information based on the actual state of the country’s economy, which suffered a reduction due to the destruction caused by the Russian aggressor. The purpose of the study is to develop methodical approaches to forecasting the consumption of thermal energy according to scenarios of economic development, taking into account the realities of wartime and limited statistical information. The article presents the macro-economic forecast of the gross domestic product of Ukraine and the gross added values of consolidated sections of the economy developed by the authors. It takes into account the realities of wartime based on the assessments of domestic economists and specialists of international financial organizations. A methodological approach to forecasting heat energy consumption at the level of the country and sections of the economy is presented. Forecasts of thermal energy consumption have been developed for two scenarios of economic development: 1) the scenario of moderate recovery under the conditions of revival of the country’s economy by 2030; 2) conservative, provided that existing trends in the development of the industrial sector of the economy are preserved and large destroyed enterprises are not restored. The need to modernize the infrastructure and reorient the economy to the latest technological solutions is taken into account. The prediction of thermal energy consumption in the article is based on a comprehensive analysis of the current state of the energy system and the industrial sector of the economy, their potential with the introduction of innovations and adaptation to changing conditions, taking into account international experience. Bibl. 70, Tab. 7.