Determination of sex and age dependence of the risk of chronic rhinosinusitis recurrence using regression analysis and the bayes’ formula

<b>Introduction:</b> Chronic rhinosinusitis is a broad term defined as “infection of the sinuses and nasal mucosa lasting more than 3 months (or 12 weeks) per year”. From 5% to 15% of the population in different countries suffers from chronic rhinosinusitis in its various forms. The question of predicting the recurrence of chronic rhinosinusitis depending on its form, pathogenesis, and sex-age component of the disease remains relevant and open today.<b>Aim:</b> The aim of the work is to establish the sex-age dependence of the risk of chronic rhinosinusitis recurrence in patients using regression analysis and the Bayes’ formula.<b>Materials and methods:</b> A total of 214 patients with a diagnosis of chronic rhinosinusitis, aged from 18 to 80 years, including 108 women and 106 men, were examined.<b>Results:</b> To build a multivariate regression model for predicting the risk of chronic rhinosinusitis recurrence, the most probable indicators of the disease were selected. Eleven factors were used to build a multivariate regression model. The coefficient of determination was calculated, which is 0.9910204 in men and 0.9896 in women, i.e. 99.1% of the factors in men and 98.9% of the factors in women.<b>Discussion:</b> Using the Bayes’ formula for the probability of developing chronic rhinosinusitis recurrence risk in the group of men is higher than the probability in the group of women.<b>Conclusions:</b> When conducting a comparison using the Bayes’ formula for each of the age groups according to sex, it was established that the probability of chronic rhinosinusitis recurrence is most pronounced in the middle-aged group (45–60 years old) and the old age (61–75 years old). As for all other age groups, the male and female indicators were symmetrical.