Determinants of Fertility Rates in OECD Countries: A Panel ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

The fertility rate affects countries in many ways, including education, health care, social security and economic systems. It was important to understand the short-run and the long-run determinants of the total fertility rates (TFRs) in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. This study aimed to examine the short-run and the long-run effects of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, labour force participation (LFP) rate for females, and mean age at first birth on the TFR in OECD countries for the period between 1991 and 2017 by employing a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method. According to the results, GDP per capita and mean age at first birth statistically significantly affected the TFR both in the long run and the short run ( p < .05). The effects of these two variables should be taken into account in population planning.