Spatial and Temporal Pattern Assessment of Agricultural Drought Sensitivity and its Potential Impact on Economic Crops in Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand

Agricultural drought sensitivity (ADS) is highly diverse across regions, primarily due to differences in climate, soil types, and farming practices. Agricultural drought impacts depend on drought intensity, severity, duration and timing relative to crop growth stages. Therefore, spatial and temporal pattern assessments of ADS and its potential impact on economic crops in three scenarios via multicriteria decision-making methods were conducted. As a result, the spatial distributions of the ADS index and its classification at 3 m7, 3 m10 and 6 m10, covering the planting and growing periods, displayed different patterns. The percentages of moderate, high and very high severity levels at 3 m7, 3 m10 and 6 m10 covered 56.06%, 59.14%, and 56.02%, respectively, of the study area. These results suggest that the study area is moderately sensitive to agricultural drought. A high and very high severity level of ADS at the district and subdistrict levels persistently occurred in three periods, with 8 districts and 72 subdistricts; these persistent areas should be intensively monitored for agricultural drought by the Department of Agricultural Extension (DOAE) and the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM). In addition, the potential impact areas of ADS with moderate, high, and very high severity levels indicated that ADS has a high potential impact on rice and corn. Nevertheless, it has a moderate effect on cassava and sugarcane. Hence, if drought occurs, rice and sugarcane areas should be prioritized with a field survey on the impact of drought by DOAE and DDPM. This research methodology can be used as a guideline for managing crops via the DOAE and monitoring agricultural drought via the DDPM. The government should establish early warning systems for droughts jointly by government agencies and universities to prevent and mitigate the impact of drought in the future.