The Impact of the Trade Sector on Retail Trade Turnover in Russian Regions

Retail trade turnover varies significantly across Russian regions, making it essential to understand the sector’s role in these disparities to improve regulation and reduce regional consumption gaps. This study aims to identify key indicators of the trade sector in Russian regions that most significantly affect retail trade turnover and explain its regional variations. Using regional statistics from 2018–2022, a machine learning model was developed, with average per capita retail trade turnover as the dependent variable and seven trade sector indicators along with average per capita income as independent variables. To assess the impact of each factor, the model was interpreted using the feature_importances_ attribute and the SHAP framework. The findings confirm that while the trade sector efficiently meets consumer demand across Russia, it is not the primary driver of regional disparities in sales—income plays a more decisive role. Among trade sector indicators, the share of e-commerce in total turnover is the most influential. Given its growth potential, fostering favourable conditions for e-commerce development could help reduce regional consumption disparities. The share of commercial networks also had a significant yet ambiguous impact on regional sales imbalances, highlighting the need for balanced state regulation to maximize the socio-economic benefits of network trade while preventing excessive market concentration. Additionally, the number of retail outlets proved to be an important factor affecting turnover. These findings may be of interest to policymakers seeking to improve trade regulation to better meet consumer demands across Russia. Future research may focus on refining e-commerce regulation.