Global, regional, and national burdens of alcohol-related cirrhosis among women from 1992 to 2021 and its predictions

Alcohol-Related Cirrhosis (AC) has become a growing global health issue, particularly affecting women. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the global, regional, and national burden of AC in women from 1992 to 2021, addressing a research gap by focusing on long-term trends specific to women. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we assessed trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), mortality rates (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for AC in women across 204 countries. Temporal trends were examined using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) method, and future projections to 2030 were generated using the Nordpred model. Between 1992 and 2021, the global ASIR of AC in women showed a slight decrease, from 3.10 to 2.42 per 100,000, with an EAPC of -1.02. A significant variation was observed across Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, with the highest ASIR (3.77 per 100,000) reported in low-SDI regions in 2021. Mortality and DALYs also declined globally but remained disproportionately high in lower-SDI regions. The age distribution analysis revealed distinct gender-specific trends, with women experiencing a marked increase in AC burden in older age groups. Predictions indicate a further decline in AC burden by 2030, although the disease remains a significant public health concern. The findings highlight both global progress and persistent regional disparities in the burden of AC among women. Targeted public health interventions, particularly in lower-SDI regions, are essential to address the ongoing burden of this preventable disease.