Jaguar density in the forests of the Gran Calakmul Region, Mexico

Abstract The Jaguar (Panthera onca) is the largest felid in the Neotropics, and its population size and trends are poorly known. In this study, we estimated Jaguar density using camera traps and Spatially Explicit Capture-Recapture (SECR) models at 3 sites (Silvituc, Centenario, and Miguel Colorado) within the Gran Calakmul Region, a large and continuous forest area in southern Mexico. We also monitored temporal changes in Jaguar density at Miguel Colorado over a 5 yr period. Our results showed that the mean density at the 3 sites in 2018 was 2.245 jaguars/100 km2 and varied from 1.683 in Centenario to 2.635 in Miguel Colorado. We found that in Miguel Colorado—surveyed in 2018 and 2022—the estimated density was 2.635 and 2.00 jaguars/100 km2, respectively. We found no evidence of significant changes in Jaguar density over time at Miguel Colorado. We compared our estimates with those obtained by the Mexican National Jaguar Census (CENJAGUAR) and found that our estimates were lower than the lower bound of the confidence interval reported by CENJAGUAR for primary and secondary habitats on the peninsula but similar to those reported by other studies in the region using SECR. We extrapolated our density estimates from previously published potential habitat estimations in the Yucatan Peninsula Jaguar Conservation Unit (JCU) and obtained a population size ranging from 781 to 1,460 jaguars, depending on the habitat model used. These estimates are lower than the 2,092 jaguars reported by CENJAGUAR for the JCU, indicating that the population on the peninsula may be smaller than previously thought. Our study provides the most comprehensive and reliable Jaguar density estimates for the Gran Calakmul Region, probably the most important region for Jaguar conservation in Mexico. We highlight the need to monitor Jaguar populations periodically and to implement effective conservation actions to protect this emblematic species and its habitat in the Selva Maya.