Understanding predator-prey-competitor dynamics between Lower Missouri River Macrhybopsis and Scaphirhynchus using a population—bioenergetics model ensemble

• Macrhybopsis chubs are preferred prey for the endangered pallid sturgeon. • Pallid stocking and reproduction may cause chub declines in the Lower Missouri River. • Developed individual- and age-based, multi-species, predator-prey-competitor model. • Chubs alone may not be able to fully support the pallid sturgeon population. • Non-chub prey fishes may be important to pallid recovery in the Lower Missouri River. The pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus is a long-lived, endangered fish in the Missouri River. Individuals become piscivorous as adults, so recruitment from stocking or reproduction could reduce populations of prey, including Macrhybopsis chubs. We constructed an individual- and age-based, multi-species, predator-prey-competitor model (IAMP) to represent the benthic community (sturgeons, chubs, and chironomids) of the Lower Missouri River (LMR) to explore scenarios of potential predator-prey-competitor dynamics. Our simulations suggest that chubs alone are unlikely able to support a level of LMR pallid sturgeon similar to historical or current populations. These simulations also suggest that adult pallid sturgeon may need to shift to non-chub prey fish to achieve the greater sizes observed in the Upper Missouri River. When annual hydrologic regimes were included, we found a negative relationship between chub relative abundance and previous year 30-day minimum flows. Inclusion of temporal environmental variability made it clear that large chub populations may be necessary to support LMR pallid sturgeon. When full stochasticity was included in the IAMP, chub population sizes needed to increase further to ensure continued reproduction and recruitment of both chubs and pallid sturgeon. These results support the hypothesis that the pallid sturgeon population in the Lower Missouri River may be food-limited. However, the full extent of this limitation and the management changes needed to address this will require more research on the biology and population dynamics of this fish community, on pallid sturgeon interactions with prey species, and on how sympatric species may be affected during the pallid sturgeon recovery process.