Unique risks and evolving trends in Arctic governance: a forward-looking analysis based on policies and practices

Abstract As climate change and evolving international dynamics shape the Arctic, governance in the region is attracting heightened attention from major global stakeholders. Arctic governance is a broad concept that encompasses political, economic, legal, and security dimensions, with the overarching goal of fostering peace, stability, and sustainable development in the region. Presently, Arctic governance faces a range of intertwined risks, including environmental, geopolitical, legal, and structural governance challenges, each posing significant obstacles. Understanding the policies and practices of key Arctic stakeholders is crucial for discerning trends in governance evolution. Analyzing the policies and practices of Arctic and non-Arctic states, the European Union, and non-state actors reveals their significant influence on the governance landscape. This landscape reflects the interaction between traditional and non-traditional security concerns. Since the end of the Cold War, Arctic governance has shifted from “securitization” to “desecuritization,” with a recent trend toward “re-securitization,” highlighting a renewed focus on security issues. In this context, the fragmented nature of Arctic governance mechanisms is likely to give rise to a multi-level, multi-nodal heterarchy model. The traditional Arctic governance framework will be deconstructed by increasingly diverse, dynamic, and interdependent governance patterns. Given the constraints of strategic resource misallocation, the harshness of the geographical environment, and institutional limitations, geopolitical competition in the Arctic remains inherently constrained, which reduces the likelihood of conventional warfare. However, the potential risks associated with hybrid warfare are growing. In this situation, all Arctic stakeholders should actively fulfill their responsibilities, enhance dialogue and consultation, fully respect the legitimate interests of all parties, and work collectively toward a more stable and cooperative Arctic governance framework.