Pathways from payments for ecosystem services to household energy transition

Achieving universal transition from polluting energy to clean energy faces substantial challenges. Payments for ecosystem services (PES) can promote the energy transition by restricting the exploitation of natural resources and increasing household affordability. However, existing studies have primarily focused on the direct effects of PES on energy use, without taking the household self-selection of PES participation into consideration. In this study, we integrate the Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) methods to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of China's Grain-to-Green Program (GTGP) and Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) on the energy transition in the Black River Basin of Shaanxi province. We found that the GTGP promoted energy transition both directly and indirectly by increasing non-farm income. In contrast, the NFCP and the characteristics of household heads had direct positive effects on the energy transition. In addition, household characteristics and geographic features also affected energy transition. These findings offer important insights for integrating environmental and energy strategies to promote the UN sustainable development goals (SDGs).