Landscape fragmentation and population distribution in refugee camps: evidence from the Rohingya refugee influx in Bangladesh

Abstract This study investigates landscape changes after the 2017 Rohingya migration from Myanmar to Bangladesh. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) classification techniques and fragmentation analysis were used to assess the changes in the spatial structure of the landscape between 2016 and 2024. Additionally, analysis of changes in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was employed to identify forest degradation. Camp-specific changes in forest and settlement areas were also observed. Sentinel-2 images were used to classify the camp areas into four classes: forest, water, agriculture/open field, and settlement. To quantify landscape fragmentation, seven class-level and two landscape-level metrics were utilized. The results indicated a 54.6% decline in total forest area from 1688.8 to 767.3 hectares, while settlement areas expanded from 144.8 to 1011.5 hectares (a 598.5% increase). Both class-level and landscape-level metrics revealed increased landscape fragmentation in 2024 and the analysis of NDVI identified the remaining patches of healthy forest inside the study area. Correlation analysis between forest and settlement change showed a strong negative correlation, demonstrating the connection between rapid migration and forest loss. The most populated Camp (15), with approximately 57,922 refugees, had the greatest increase of 67.1 hectares in settlements and decrease of 62.8 hectares in forest. Forest area increased in the Kutupalong and Nayapara camps and Camps 23, 24, and 25. Findings from this study can help optimize relocation plans, strengthen forest protection, and support camp restoration efforts.