Geopolitical conflict impedes climate change mitigation

There is ample debate and publication on climate change causing conflict. On the contrary, a Conflict=>Climate-nexus, i.e. the detrimental impact of conflict on mitigation has not been systematically charted anywhere. In this work, we aim to elucidate the adverse effects of conflict on climate change. Within this nexus, we find a remarkably large number of causal pathways hampering mitigation, including reduced political cooperation, shifting trade relations, increased self-sufficiency, diversion of funds, military vehicle emissions and asset destruction. We argue that increasing global fragmentation and conflict means that mitigation will likely be even more obstructed in the future. Therefore, elucidating the Conflict=>Climate-nexus has significant implications: Considering Conflict=>Climate evidence confirms substantial disruption of mitigation efforts and even additional emissions, and therefore strongly suggests that current IPCC scenarios are likely too idealistic and optimistic. We conclude that if we are to understand future mitigation challenges in their entire complexity and gravity, it is essential to develop scenarios that consider conflictive geo-political and associated socio-economic disruptions.