Who has the best probabilities? Luck versus skill in prediction tournaments
Abstract Prediction tournaments are everywhere these days. Why is it that, paradoxically, the best forecaster doesn’t always win? The statistics are relatively simple to analyse, says Niall MacKay
Authors
- Niall MacKay (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3279-4717)
Institutions
- University of York (GB)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Significance
- Published
- 2025-03-28
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1093/jrssig/qmaf023
- Primary Topic
- Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00