Age patterns of fertility and the fertility transition in Ethiopia and its regions: An attempt using regression models to predict age-specific fertility rates

Ethiopia has experienced a considerable decline in fertility rates in urban and rural areas across various regions over the past few decades, largely due to government initiatives. Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS) from 2000, 2005, 2011, and 2016 provide substantial evidence of this trend in terms of total fertility rates (TFRs). Due to the lack of reliable vital registration systems and recent census data, research heavily relies on these EDHS surveys. A review of the literature reveals a gap in understanding the age patterns of fertility and the fertility transition in Ethiopia and its regions. To address this, this study proposes a “model fertility table” for Ethiopia, providing reliable estimates of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) based on TFR data. Using TFRs from multiple EDHS surveys, ASFRs are derived for the years 2000, 2005, 2011, and 2016 to study regional fertility transition in Ethiopia. The results show a typical uni-modal distribution of ASFRs, with a broad peak in fertility rates among women aged 20 – 24, 25 – 29, and 30 – 34 during the early stages of the transition. As TFRs decline, the peak shifts toward older age groups. In addition, the fertility pattern becomes more concentrated in older age groups. Significant fertility differences were observed between regional and rural-urban areas. This study has both theoretical and practical implications. It introduces a new methodology for population studies and offers detailed ASFR data, aiding policymakers in designing targeted fertility and health policies and addressing regional fertility differences for more effective interventions.