Exploring the contribution of changes in nuptiality patterns to fertility transition among Ethiopian women

Fertility changes in sub-Saharan Africa are intricately tied to the institution of marriage. In this context, marriage is often depicted as the primary framework for childbearing, reflecting deeply rooted cultural norms and societal expectations. A woman’s age at the first childbirth is crucial for shaping future life and is directly connected to her lifetime fertility. Despite the substantial body of research central to fertility in Ethiopia, the specific role of changes in the nuptiality patterns in driving lifetime fertility transitions has received comparatively less attention. To address this gap, this study utilized data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2000 and 2016. A Poisson-based multivariate decomposition for the non-linear response model was employed to identify, quantify, and decompose the changes in lifetime fertility over time. The lifetime fertility experienced a statistically significant decline between the two survey periods. Early marriage and marital instability are highly prevalent in Ethiopia. Marriage stability showed improvement in the two surveys. Regardless of early or late marriage, it contributes to an increase in lifetime fertility if showing stability and decreases lifetime fertility in the case of instability. The changes in nuptiality patterns have statistically significantly contributed to lifetime fertility transition. The observed statistically significant decline in lifetime fertility is primarily linked to the reduction in the average number of deceased children. Furthermore, women with no formal education, those with secondary or higher education, women from households with the poorest and middle wealth indices, and those residing in communities with high literacy levels were key contributors to the lifetime fertility transition. The complex and dynamic shifts in nuptiality patterns among women aged 35 and older, along with contraceptive use, contributed nearly equally to the lifetime fertility transition. Nuptiality patterns should be factored in the reproductive health policies and targeted interventions to the fluctuating nuptiality patterns. With an understanding of the complexities of nuptiality patterns and their contributions to fertility transitions, governments and non-governmental organizations can foster improved family planning and reproductive health outcomes.