The driving factors of water use and its decoupling relationship with economic development—A multi-sectoral perspective in the nine provinces of the Yellow River Basin

Yellow River Nine Provinces (China) This study analyzes water consumption drivers in agriculture, industry, and domestic sectors using the LMDI method. It explores the relationship between water use and economic development via the decoupling model to identify key influencing factors and regional disparities. The Water use intensity and economic growth had opposite effects, potentially leading to the Jevons paradox. Agricultural water-saving potential was high, with reductions in water use intensity contributing significantly in Inner Mongolia (-15.053), Shandong (-14.496), and Henan (-10.124). Industrial structure adjustments had a stronger negative impact on water use in developed provinces like Shandong (-0.425). In the domestic sector, rural consumption level played a significant role in increasing water use, with strong positive effects in Sichuan (3.754) and Henan (3.698). Urban per capita consumption showed the weakest decoupling from water use, particularly in Shandong and Henan. Strengthening agricultural water conservation, upgrading industrial structures, educating rural residents, and guiding urban water-saving habits can improve water sustainability in the Yellow River Basin. • Studied drivers of agricultural, industrial, and domestic water use in nine Yellow River Basin provinces. • Used LMDI to analyze water use changes and combined decoupling model to assess economic impacts. • Found water use intensity declines with economic growth, risking Jevons paradox. • Agricultural sector has high water-saving potential; urban domestic use exhibits weakest decoupling.