Exploring future projections of wind power density over the Caribbean region in CMIP6 models.

This study aimed to assess the potential changes in wind power density (WPD) in the Caribbean region in the coming decades. The study used data from nine global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 6 (CMIP6), which were analyzed using statistical downscaling and bias correction techniques through the Quantile Delta Mapping method. We also considered two projection horizons (2025–2050 and 2051–2100) and low- and high-emissions scenarios from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5). The results from the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble suggest that the South American coastline will experience an increase in 90 m WPD. There is expected to be a significant increase in wind power density in the CLLJ region during the JJA season, especially under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. Meanwhile, during MAM, the West region would experience weakening 90 m WPD while the East region strengthens. These findings highlight the complexity of regional dynamics. In the distant future, WPD is projected to increase significantly in the northern Dominican Republic, Colombian, and Venezuelan peninsulas during DJF and SON. However, there are noticeable decreases along the coast of Central American countries, particularly during DJF and MAM under SSP5–8.5. Using a local-scale statistical analysis, the study also focused on six wind farm sites, commissioned or in planning. In the low-emissions scenario, 66 % of subdomains exhibit significant negative trends in 90 m WPD anomalies during the DJF season. However, in the South American coastline where wind farm installation is planned, WPD is expected to increase under both scenarios, with deviations from historical norms exceeding 0.54 %/year in the near future. This study provides valuable insights for decision-makers in the energy sector, offering a comprehensive analysis of CMIP6 projections for South American wind power generation. • The highest 90 m WPD (1000–1400 W/m2) was found between 13 and 17°N, and 69–79°W. • The Caribbean's DJF season's 90 m WPD is projected to be below historical averages in two scenarios. • The SSP5–8.5 scenario shows more significant WPD fluctuations than the SSP1–2.6 scenario. • The anticipated rise in WPD suggests wind farms will be more suitable in the Caribbean.