Exploring the applicability of “One-Size-Fits-All” road transport decarbonization strategies: a participatory energy systems modeling comparison of urban and non-urban municipalities

Despite the key role that local authorities play in shaping energy policies and implementing action plans, their level of involvement has been insufficiently examined. This study aims to assess how different socio-geographical factors impact the adoption of fossil-free vehicle technologies and fuels for private cars, buses, and trucks. Using a participatory energy systems modeling approach, this study explores the cost-optimal decarbonization of road transport in four urban and non-urban Swedish municipalities. By collaborating with local authorities, socio-technical scenarios are modeled to reflect climate actions, resources and infrastructure availability, as well as travel patterns. The findings reveal a preference for lower upfront costs in urban areas with shorter trip distances, leading to a higher small-size battery electric vehicles (BEVs) share. Conversely, in non-urban areas with longer trip distances, fuel economy, fuel cost, as well as operation and maintenance costs outweigh upfront costs, increasing average-size BEVs share. Buses and trucks also experience a growing BEVs and fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) share, driven by their typically high annual mileage. Biofuels play an intermediate role until BEVs and FCEVs are reduced in cost. Tailoring decarbonization strategies to local contexts is essential for maximum effectiveness, balancing national and regional climate goals with urban and non-urban challenges.