Integrating sustainable wind power into Nigeria’s energy system: an analysis of excess electricity, CO2 emissions reduction, and fuel demand implications

This study explores the integration of sustainable wind power into Nigeria's energy system, focusing on its effects on Excess Electricity Production (CEEP), CO2 emissions reduction, and fuel demand under different scenarios. Using the Energy PLAN modeling tool, the study evaluates Nigeria's energy infrastructure at an electricity demand of 32 TWh per year, incorporating both onshore and offshore wind power capacities. Three regulatory scenarios are considered: Regulation 1 (heat demand only), Regulation 2 (combined heat and electricity demand), and Regulation 3 (heat pump integration). The results indicate that increasing wind power capacity significantly affects CEEP. At maximum wind penetration, CEEP is reduced by 35% under Regulation 2 with heat pump integration, compared to Regulation 1, highlighting the importance of system flexibility. Integrating heat pumps reduces energy waste and optimizes renewable energy use by 40%. The CO2 emissions are reduced by about 28% across all scenarios, with the most significant reductions occurring in systems incorporating heat pumps and wind energy. The study shows that primary energy savings were about 25%, driven by decreased reliance on fossil fuels. Wind energy integration leads to a 30% reduction in natural gas consumption, which remains a significant component of Nigeria’s energy mix. Sensitivity analysis reveals that variability in wind production and enhanced system flexibility can improve overall energy system efficiency by 20%. The study contributes significantly to the understanding of renewable energy integration in Nigeria, offering a comprehensive framework for incorporating intermittent wind energy sources into the national grid.