A Skill Assessment Framework for the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project

Abstract Understanding climate change impacts on global marine ecosystems and fisheries requires complex marine ecosystem models, forced by global climate projections, that can robustly detect and project changes. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) uses an ensemble modeling approach to fill this crucial gap. Yet FishMIP does not have a standardised skill assessment framework to quantify the ability of member models to reproduce past observations and to guide model improvement. In this study, we apply a comprehensive model skill assessment framework to a subset of global FishMIP models that produce historical fisheries catches. We consider a suite of metrics and assess their utility in illustrating the models' ability to reproduce observed fisheries catches. Our findings reveal improvement in model performance at both global and regional (Large Marine Ecosystem) scales from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 simulation rounds. Our analysis underscores the importance of employing easily interpretable, relative skill metrics to estimate the capability of models to capture temporal variations, alongside absolute error measures to characterize shifts in the magnitude of these variations between models and across simulation rounds. The skill assessment framework developed and tested here provides a first objective assessment and a baseline of the FishMIP ensemble's skill in reproducing historical catch at the global and regional scale. This assessment can be further improved and systematically applied to test the reliability of FishMIP models across the whole model ensemble from future simulation rounds and include more variables like fish biomass or production.

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Publication Details

Journal
Earth s Future
Published
2025-03-27
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ef004868
Citations
3
Primary Topic
Marine and fisheries research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
2.21

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article

A Skill Assessment Framework for the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project

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3 citations
Earth s Future
Marine and fisheries research
2.21
article

A Skill Assessment Framework for the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project

Daniele Bianchi, Olivier Maury, Marta Coll, Colleen M. Petrik, Camilla Novaglio, Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros, Derek P. Tittensor, Tyler D. Eddy, Ryan Heneghan, Julia L. Blanchard, Jérôme Guiet, Villy Christensen, Andrea Bryndum‐Buchholz, Cheryl S. Harrison, Jeroen Steenbeek, Nina Rynne
article en
3 citations

Abstract

Abstract Understanding climate change impacts on global marine ecosystems and fisheries requires complex marine ecosystem models, forced by global climate projections, that can robustly detect and project changes. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) uses an ensemble modeling approach to fill this crucial gap. Yet FishMIP does not have a standardised skill assessment framework to quantify the ability of member models to reproduce past observations and to guide model improvement. In this study, we apply a comprehensive model skill assessment framework to a subset of global FishMIP models that produce historical fisheries catches. We consider a suite of metrics and assess their utility in illustrating the models' ability to reproduce observed fisheries catches. Our findings reveal improvement in model performance at both global and regional (Large Marine Ecosystem) scales from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 simulation rounds. Our analysis underscores the importance of employing easily interpretable, relative skill metrics to estimate the capability of models to capture temporal variations, alongside absolute error measures to characterize shifts in the magnitude of these variations between models and across simulation rounds. The skill assessment framework developed and tested here provides a first objective assessment and a baseline of the FishMIP ensemble's skill in reproducing historical catch at the global and regional scale. This assessment can be further improved and systematically applied to test the reliability of FishMIP models across the whole model ensemble from future simulation rounds and include more variables like fish biomass or production.

Earth s FutureVol. 13(4)
Griffith University (AU), Louisiana State University (US), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University of Tasmania (AU), Dalhousie University (CA), Memorial University of Newfoundland (CA), Fisheries and Oceans Canada (CA), University of British Columbia (CA), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US), Ifremer (FR), University of Cape Town (ZA), Queensland University of Technology (AU), University of California, Los Angeles (US), University of the Sunshine Coast (AU), University of California San Diego (US), Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR), Centre for Marine Socioecology (AU), Ecopath International Initiative (ES), Marine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (FR), Institut de Ciències del Mar (ES), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR)
Spanish National Plan for Scientific and Technical Research and Innovation
Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 15%
Marine and fisheries research
2.21
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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