Algorithmic design of a conditional value-at-risk optimization model based on implied volatility for multi-period portfolio adjustment

Based on the definition of volatility and conditional value risk (CVaR), this paper introduces the implied volatility into CVaR model, and further analyzes the partial differential equation of stock portfolio optimization in the form of BS model. In the process of multi-stage investment, in order to reasonably control the investment risk of each stage, the CvaR model based on implied volatility is constructed by using the scenario tree method. With the data of 1166 trading days as the data, 4 stock assets as the data set of this study, the optimization model is applied to the calculation and analysis. The numerical simulation shows that the stock price fluctuation of the four multi-cycle stocks ranges from -23.45% to 41.97%, showing a clustering phenomenon. Among them, the volatility of stocks A and C is more obvious than that of stocks B and D, and the probability density tails of stocks are longer in the cycle, and they all show thick tail characteristics, indicating that the introduction of implied volatility of CVaR model makes the risk control of actual equity asset investment more reasonable.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Combinatorial Mathematics and Combinatorial Computing
Published
2025-03-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.61091/jcmcc125-25
Primary Topic
Risk and Portfolio Optimization
Type
article
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0.00
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article

Algorithmic design of a conditional value-at-risk optimization model based on implied volatility for multi-period portfolio adjustment

Jingxing Wang
Journal of Combinatorial Mathematics and Combinatorial Computing
Risk and Portfolio Optimization
article

Algorithmic design of a conditional value-at-risk optimization model based on implied volatility for multi-period portfolio adjustment

Jingxing Wang
article en

Abstract

Based on the definition of volatility and conditional value risk (CVaR), this paper introduces the implied volatility into CVaR model, and further analyzes the partial differential equation of stock portfolio optimization in the form of BS model. In the process of multi-stage investment, in order to reasonably control the investment risk of each stage, the CvaR model based on implied volatility is constructed by using the scenario tree method. With the data of 1166 trading days as the data, 4 stock assets as the data set of this study, the optimization model is applied to the calculation and analysis. The numerical simulation shows that the stock price fluctuation of the four multi-cycle stocks ranges from -23.45% to 41.97%, showing a clustering phenomenon. Among them, the volatility of stocks A and C is more obvious than that of stocks B and D, and the probability density tails of stocks are longer in the cycle, and they all show thick tail characteristics, indicating that the introduction of implied volatility of CVaR model makes the risk control of actual equity asset investment more reasonable.

Journal of Combinatorial Mathematics and Combinatorial ComputingVol. 125
Openalex Percentile: Top 93%
Risk and Portfolio Optimization
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Algorithmic design of a conditional value-at-risk optimization model based on implied volatility for multi-period portfolio adjustment — Jingxing Wang · Journal of Combinatorial Mathematics and Combinatorial Computing (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS