Measuring Türkiye's Fiscal Credibility and Transparency through Fiscal Balance and Debt Stock

Fiscal credibility and fiscal transparency affect many basic macroeconomic variables, especially economic growth, inflation and interest rates through expectations. Therefore, increasing credibility and transparency increase the effectiveness of fiscal policy by enabling better management of expectations. The aim of this study is to determine Türkiye’s fiscal credibility and transparency. For this purpose, Türkiye's fiscal credibility and transparency were measured for the 2010-2023 period with the help of various indices, based on the International Monetary Fund's fiscal balance and debt stock expectations. According to the findings, it is possible to say that fiscal credibility decreased in Türkiye, the absolute deviation between fiscal balance expectations and official targets increased, and fiscal transparency decreased, especially in the 2019-2022 period.