Do citizens respond to tax reforms during conflict? Experimental evidence from Ukraine

Scholarly research indicates that well-designed tax regimes can increase taxpayer compliance. However, we know little about how effective proposed tax reforms might be during conflict. This paper analyses the impact of hypothetical tax reforms in wartime Ukraine. Ukraine is a state with historically low levels of tax compliance, making it an appropriate context in which to assess the potential benefits of incentive-based reforms designed to improve tax morale. It also has been severely affected by the Russian full-scale invasion that has been taking place since February 2022. Our analysis draws on the results of a survey experiment (N = 1,003) conducted in the summer of 2023, approximately eighteen months following the 2022 full-scale invasion. We find that proposed reforms increase compliance even during wartime.